Nikkei 500 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 11th, 2026
1 Day
11.02%
decreased by 37.31%
1 Week
12.95%
decreased by 35.38%
1 Month
23.59%
decreased by 24.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | ||
| 1.0000 | 9,999,900.00 | |
| 0.0050 | 49,530.00 | |
| -0.0099 | -98,870.00 | |
| 1.5998 | 46.83 | |
| 0.2111 | 24.29 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 5, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 5, 2026
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