V-Lab
National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
8.76%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
9.01%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
9.83%
increased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 12:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3645 | 8.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.1033 | 9.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8758 | 76.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -0.98 |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3645 | 8.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1033 | 9.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8758 | 76.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -0.98 |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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