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V-Lab
V-Lab

Namib Minerals MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

90.79%

decreased by 24.60%

1 Week

924.27%

increased by 808.88%

1 Month

73,167,410.78%

increased by 73,167,295.39%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Namib Minerals MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 29, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 918 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~918 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.6812
1.85*
βGARCH0.5681
8.96***
γleverage-0.5000
-0.69
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
1.23
λ₂forecast adj.0.9474
2.03**
λ₃tau persistence0.0526
0.43

0.999

Persistence

918d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6812
1.85*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5681
8.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-0.69
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
1.23
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9474
2.03**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0526
0.43

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

918 days