V-Lab
Namib Minerals MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
78.68%
1 Week
928.18%
1 Month
127,566,782.51%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 690 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 267% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6873 | 8.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5617 | 28.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -3.12*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.80 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.69 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
690 days
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