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V-Lab

Namib Minerals MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

78.68%

decreased by 10.91%

1 Week

928.18%

increased by 838.59%

1 Month

127,566,782.51%

increased by 127,566,692.92%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Namib Minerals MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 29, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 690 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 267% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6873
8.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5617
28.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-3.12***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.80
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

1.0000
0.69
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

690 days