V-Lab
Namib Minerals MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
90.79%
1 Week
924.27%
1 Month
73,167,410.78%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 918 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.6812 | 1.85* |
| βGARCH | 0.5681 | 8.96*** |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -0.69 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 1.23 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9474 | 2.03** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0526 | 0.43 |
0.999
Persistence918d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6812 | 1.85* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5681 | 8.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -0.69 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.23 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9474 | 2.03** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0526 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
918 days
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