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V-Lab

Namib Minerals Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

93.04%

increased by 2.50%

1 Week

128.13%

increased by 37.59%

1 Month

217.51%

increased by 126.97%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Namib Minerals S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 29, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1001 trading days (~4.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0474
16.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7922
10.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2071
2.68***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-4.6366
-0.59
γ210.0694
0.82
γ3-15.1190
-1.40
γ426.3674
1.66*
γ5-34.4213
-1.36
γ623.0416
1.01
γ714.4449
1.22
γ8-41.2322
-4.95***
γ925.0827
2.50**
γ10-3.6579
-0.53

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1001 days