V-Lab
Namib Minerals Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
94.92%
decreased by 28.47%
1 Week
124.02%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
201.81%
increased by 78.42%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 860 trading days (~3.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~860 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9806 | 8.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.7903 | 10.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2089 | 2.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -4.9647 | -0.68 |
| γ2 | 11.0667 | 0.95 |
| γ3 | -17.0794 | -1.62 |
| γ4 | 28.5218 | 2.17** |
| γ5 | -35.0596 | -1.62 |
| γ6 | 22.8352 | 1.10 |
| γ7 | 12.2015 | 1.07 |
| γ8 | -36.0856 | -4.49*** |
| γ9 | 20.7376 | 2.31** |
| γ10 | -1.7934 | -0.31 |
0.999
Persistence860d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9806 | 8.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7903 | 10.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2089 | 2.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -4.9647 | -0.68 |
| γ2 | 11.0667 | 0.95 |
| γ3 | -17.0794 | -1.62 |
| γ4 | 28.5218 | 2.17** |
| γ5 | -35.0596 | -1.62 |
| γ6 | 22.8352 | 1.10 |
| γ7 | 12.2015 | 1.07 |
| γ8 | -36.0856 | -4.49*** |
| γ9 | 20.7376 | 2.31** |
| γ10 | -1.7934 | -0.31 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
860 days
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