V-Lab
Namib Minerals Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
93.04%
increased by 2.50%
1 Week
128.13%
increased by 37.59%
1 Month
217.51%
increased by 126.97%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1001 trading days (~4.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0474 | 16.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7922 | 10.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2071 | 2.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -4.6366 | -0.59 |
| γ2 | 10.0694 | 0.82 |
| γ3 | -15.1190 | -1.40 |
| γ4 | 26.3674 | 1.66* |
| γ5 | -34.4213 | -1.36 |
| γ6 | 23.0416 | 1.01 |
| γ7 | 14.4449 | 1.22 |
| γ8 | -41.2322 | -4.95*** |
| γ9 | 25.0827 | 2.50** |
| γ10 | -3.6579 | -0.53 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1001 days
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