V-Lab
Solactive Myanmar-Focused Asia Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Inactive
Last recorded values (Monday, March 10th, 2025):
1 Day
15.15%
1 Week
15.14%
1 Month
15.11%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2012 to Mar 7, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1509 | 5.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0764 | 4.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9017 | 57.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0062 | 0.93 |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1509 | 5.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0764 | 4.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9017 | 57.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0062 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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