Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

12.56%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

13.14%

increased by 0.25%

1 Month

14.91%

increased by 2.02%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:51 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE World Italy Large Cap Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 3, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4877
8.82***
αARCH0.1064
8.91***
βGARCH0.8684
73.08***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0299
6.14***
γ2-0.0454
-5.40***
γ30.0224
2.42**

0.975

Persistence

27d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4877
8.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1064
8.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8684
73.08***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0299
6.14***
γ2-0.0454
-5.40***
γ30.0224
2.42**

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days