V-Lab
Interactive Brokers Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
42.33%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
44.11%
increased by 1.84%
1 Month
46.83%
increased by 4.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8575 | 3.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.1403 | 6.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7001 | 15.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.7964 | -2.74*** |
| γ2 | 1.0493 | 2.61*** |
| γ3 | -0.2623 | -1.02 |
| γ4 | 0.1536 | 0.65 |
| γ5 | -0.3721 | -1.85* |
| γ6 | 0.4918 | 2.70*** |
| γ7 | -0.4563 | -2.91*** |
| γ8 | 0.2002 | 1.52 |
| γ9 | 0.1556 | 1.40 |
| γ10 | -0.2867 | -3.57*** |
0.840
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8575 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1403 | 6.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7001 | 15.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.7964 | -2.74*** |
| γ2 | 1.0493 | 2.61*** |
| γ3 | -0.2623 | -1.02 |
| γ4 | 0.1536 | 0.65 |
| γ5 | -0.3721 | -1.85* |
| γ6 | 0.4918 | 2.70*** |
| γ7 | -0.4563 | -2.91*** |
| γ8 | 0.2002 | 1.52 |
| γ9 | 0.1556 | 1.40 |
| γ10 | -0.2867 | -3.57*** |
Persistence:
0.840
Half-life:
4 days
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