V-Lab
Interactive Brokers Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
35.63%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
38.38%
increased by 1.79%
1 Month
42.42%
increased by 5.83%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8282 | 2.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.1381 | 6.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7023 | 15.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8220 | -2.76*** |
| γ2 | 1.0822 | 2.64*** |
| γ3 | -0.2701 | -1.05 |
| γ4 | 0.1512 | 0.64 |
| γ5 | -0.3659 | -1.83* |
| γ6 | 0.4871 | 2.68*** |
| γ7 | -0.4565 | -2.90*** |
| γ8 | 0.2068 | 1.55 |
| γ9 | 0.1442 | 1.29 |
| γ10 | -0.2765 | -3.48*** |
0.840
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8282 | 2.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1381 | 6.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7023 | 15.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8220 | -2.76*** |
| γ2 | 1.0822 | 2.64*** |
| γ3 | -0.2701 | -1.05 |
| γ4 | 0.1512 | 0.64 |
| γ5 | -0.3659 | -1.83* |
| γ6 | 0.4871 | 2.68*** |
| γ7 | -0.4565 | -2.90*** |
| γ8 | 0.2068 | 1.55 |
| γ9 | 0.1442 | 1.29 |
| γ10 | -0.2765 | -3.48*** |
Persistence:
0.840
Half-life:
4 days
Other Interactive Brokers Group Inc Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities