V-Lab
Interactive Brokers Group Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
38.69%
increased by 0.10%
1 Week
39.81%
increased by 1.22%
1 Month
41.53%
increased by 2.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8403 | 3.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.1411 | 6.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6977 | 15.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8293 | -2.82*** |
| γ2 | 1.1025 | 2.71*** |
| γ3 | -0.2989 | -1.16 |
| γ4 | 0.1833 | 0.78 |
| γ5 | -0.3956 | -1.97** |
| γ6 | 0.5068 | 2.79*** |
| γ7 | -0.4576 | -2.93*** |
| γ8 | 0.1771 | 1.34 |
| γ9 | 0.2248 | 1.56 |
| γ10 | -0.4712 | -1.51 |
0.839
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8403 | 3.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1411 | 6.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6977 | 15.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8293 | -2.82*** |
| γ2 | 1.1025 | 2.71*** |
| γ3 | -0.2989 | -1.16 |
| γ4 | 0.1833 | 0.78 |
| γ5 | -0.3956 | -1.97** |
| γ6 | 0.5068 | 2.79*** |
| γ7 | -0.4576 | -2.93*** |
| γ8 | 0.1771 | 1.34 |
| γ9 | 0.2248 | 1.56 |
| γ10 | -0.4712 | -1.51 |
Persistence:
0.839
Half-life:
4 days
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