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V-Lab

Interactive Brokers Group Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

38.69%

increased by 0.10%

1 Week

39.81%

increased by 1.22%

1 Month

41.53%

increased by 2.94%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Interactive Brokers Group Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 4, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8403
3.02***
αARCH0.1411
6.59***
βGARCH0.6977
15.67***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.8293
-2.82***
γ21.1025
2.71***
γ3-0.2989
-1.16
γ40.1833
0.78
γ5-0.3956
-1.97**
γ60.5068
2.79***
γ7-0.4576
-2.93***
γ80.1771
1.34
γ90.2248
1.56
γ10-0.4712
-1.51

0.839

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8403
3.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1411
6.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6977
15.67***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.8293
-2.82***
γ21.1025
2.71***
γ3-0.2989
-1.16
γ40.1833
0.78
γ5-0.3956
-1.97**
γ60.5068
2.79***
γ7-0.4576
-2.93***
γ80.1771
1.34
γ90.2248
1.56
γ10-0.4712
-1.51

Persistence:

0.839

Half-life:

4 days