V-Lab
Vietnam Airlines Jsc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
33.40%
increased by 4.72%
1 Week
36.25%
increased by 7.57%
1 Month
41.65%
increased by 12.97%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 7, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.5859 | 4.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1753 | 11.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8948 | 33.75*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2530 | 8.56*** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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