V-Lab
Hive Digital Technologies Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
83.20%
increased by 0.12%
1 Week
84.86%
increased by 1.78%
1 Month
88.12%
increased by 5.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 09:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0477 | 3.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8264 | 13.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.0253 | 0.87 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0010 | 0.55 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9988 | 379.78*** |
0.887
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0477 | 3.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8264 | 13.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0253 | 0.87 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0010 | 0.55 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9988 | 379.78*** |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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