Hive Digital Technologies Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
91.75%
1 Week
93.86%
1 Month
101.76%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1998 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 315 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 400.8768 | 1.93* |
| αscore | 0.1146 | 9.46*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9978 | 1,018.17*** |
| νDF | 9.7874 | 1.46 |
0.998
Persistence315d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 400.8768 | 1.93* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1146 | 9.46*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 1,018.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.7874 | 1.46 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
315 days
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