V-Lab
Hexagon Composites Asa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
67.17%
1 Week
68.49%
1 Month
69.29%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 37% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1541 | 21.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4984 | 26.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0414 | -4.11*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0218 | 0.75 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0110 | 1.49 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9873 | 107.76*** |
Persistence:
0.632
Half-life:
2 days
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