V-Lab
Hexagon Composites Asa GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
64.14%
increased by 3.19%
1 Week
64.19%
increased by 3.24%
1 Month
64.41%
increased by 3.46%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 18.3685 | 3.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0461 | 50.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9929 | 523.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4650 | 20.09*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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