V-Lab
Hexagon Composites Asa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
51.26%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
55.79%
increased by 3.81%
1 Month
58.79%
increased by 6.81%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 02:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3909 | 6.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.1536 | 6.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4815 | 6.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0455 | -1.17 |
| γ2 | 0.0281 | 0.47 |
| γ3 | 0.0793 | 1.98** |
| γ4 | -0.0677 | -1.77* |
| γ5 | -0.0590 | -1.31 |
| γ6 | 0.1575 | 4.35*** |
| γ7 | -0.1413 | -4.99*** |
| γ8 | 0.0527 | 2.07** |
0.635
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3909 | 6.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1536 | 6.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4815 | 6.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0455 | -1.17 |
| γ2 | 0.0281 | 0.47 |
| γ3 | 0.0793 | 1.98** |
| γ4 | -0.0677 | -1.77* |
| γ5 | -0.0590 | -1.31 |
| γ6 | 0.1575 | 4.35*** |
| γ7 | -0.1413 | -4.99*** |
| γ8 | 0.0527 | 2.07** |
Persistence:
0.635
Half-life:
2 days
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