V-Lab
Hexagon Composites Asa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
59.98%
increased by 5.69%
1 Week
60.34%
increased by 6.05%
1 Month
60.59%
increased by 6.30%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3615 | 6.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1539 | 6.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4763 | 6.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0493 | -1.25 |
| γ2 | 0.0321 | 0.53 |
| γ3 | 0.0791 | 1.97** |
| γ4 | -0.0662 | -1.74* |
| γ5 | -0.0623 | -1.41 |
| γ6 | 0.1600 | 4.55*** |
| γ7 | -0.1399 | -4.95*** |
| γ8 | 0.0492 | 1.93* |
Persistence:
0.630
Half-life:
2 days
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