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V-Lab

Croatia Zagreb Stock Exchange Crobex Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

8.10%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

8.76%

increased by 0.39%

1 Month

9.72%

increased by 1.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Croatia Zagreb Stock Exchange Crobex Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1997 to Jun 3, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 39% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1303
19.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6650
33.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0511
4.12***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0058
2.49**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0533
3.65***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9432
64.05***

Persistence:

0.821

Half-life:

4 days