V-Lab
Croatia Zagreb Stock Exchange Crobex Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
8.10%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
8.76%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
9.72%
increased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1997 to Jun 3, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 39% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1303 | 19.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6650 | 33.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0511 | 4.12*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0058 | 2.49** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0533 | 3.65*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9432 | 64.05*** |
Persistence:
0.821
Half-life:
4 days
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