Christian Dior SE MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
29.25%
1 Week
29.28%
1 Month
29.41%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2020 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 287 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9815 | 118.97*** |
| γleverage | 0.0322 | 3.09*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 5.0422 | 1.20 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.998
Persistence287d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9815 | 118.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0322 | 3.09*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.0422 | 1.20 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
287 days
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