V-Lab
Christian Dior SE MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
31.08%
1 Week
31.08%
1 Month
31.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 185 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9812 | 219.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0302 | 8.84*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.2643 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1559 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
185 days
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