V-Lab
Ballard Power Systems Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
64.13%
decreased by 5.14%
1 Week
68.37%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Month
75.14%
increased by 5.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5960 | 4.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.1918 | 5.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6639 | 14.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0109 | 0.18 |
| γ2 | -0.0725 | -0.80 |
| γ3 | 0.0854 | 1.20 |
| γ4 | -0.0244 | -0.39 |
| γ5 | 0.0347 | 0.53 |
| γ6 | -0.1133 | -1.37 |
| γ7 | 0.1599 | 2.12** |
| γ8 | -0.1239 | -2.31** |
| γ9 | 0.0517 | 1.48 |
0.856
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5960 | 4.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1918 | 5.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6639 | 14.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0109 | 0.18 |
| γ2 | -0.0725 | -0.80 |
| γ3 | 0.0854 | 1.20 |
| γ4 | -0.0244 | -0.39 |
| γ5 | 0.0347 | 0.53 |
| γ6 | -0.1133 | -1.37 |
| γ7 | 0.1599 | 2.12** |
| γ8 | -0.1239 | -2.31** |
| γ9 | 0.0517 | 1.48 |
Persistence:
0.856
Half-life:
4 days
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