V-Lab
Ballard Power Systems Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
76.12%
decreased by 2.95%
1 Week
77.62%
decreased by 1.45%
1 Month
80.21%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5938 | 4.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1901 | 5.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6701 | 14.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0117 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | -0.0743 | -0.80 |
| γ3 | 0.0865 | 1.19 |
| γ4 | -0.0256 | -0.40 |
| γ5 | 0.0386 | 0.57 |
| γ6 | -0.1189 | -1.39 |
| γ7 | 0.1627 | 2.14** |
| γ8 | -0.1206 | -2.23** |
| γ9 | 0.0456 | 1.28 |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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