V-Lab
Ballard Power Systems Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
98.03%
decreased by 2.17%
1 Week
105.88%
increased by 5.68%
1 Month
117.29%
increased by 17.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6058 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1986 | 5.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6398 | 12.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0329 | 0.56 |
| γ2 | -0.1118 | -1.26 |
| γ3 | 0.1173 | 1.68* |
| γ4 | -0.0528 | -0.85 |
| γ5 | 0.0640 | 0.97 |
| γ6 | -0.1481 | -1.80* |
| γ7 | 0.2079 | 2.82*** |
| γ8 | -0.2075 | -3.61*** |
| γ9 | 0.2552 | 3.24*** |
Persistence:
0.838
Half-life:
4 days
Other Ballard Power Systems Inc Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities