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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

18.70%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

18.71%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

18.90%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0503
4.93***
βGARCH0.8080
22.80***
γleverage0.0185
1.32
λ₁tau intercept0.0287
2.42**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0732
3.39***
λ₃tau persistence0.9065
31.67***

0.868

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0503
4.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8080
22.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0185
1.32
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0287
2.42**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0732
3.39***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9065
31.67***

Persistence:

0.868

Half-life:

5 days