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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

20.56%

increased by 13.80%

1 Week

26,671,610,974,967,372.00%

increased by 26,671,610,974,967,364.00%

1 Month

920,612,556,942,387,200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 920,612,556,942,387,200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0000
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.9324
14.26***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4018
15.12***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-