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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

18.23%

increased by 1.46%

1 Week

18.35%

increased by 1.58%

1 Month

18.39%

increased by 1.62%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.0504
4.93***
βGARCH0.8091
22.98***
γleverage0.0183
1.31
λ₁tau intercept0.0284
2.42**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0724
3.39***
λ₃tau persistence0.9075
32.01***

0.869

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0504
4.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8091
22.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0183
1.31
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0284
2.42**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0724
3.39***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9075
32.01***

Persistence:

0.869

Half-life:

5 days