V-Lab
Bank of America Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
20.95%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
21.18%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
22.08%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.9559 | 4.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0736 | 54.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9953 | 1,007.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2272 | 11.80*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
146 days
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