V-Lab
Avi Polymers Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 4th, 2026
1 Day
84.20%
increased by 1.30%
1 Week
162.30%
increased by 79.40%
1 Month
3,269.42%
increased by 3,186.52%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 4, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2015 to May 29, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0968 | 0.37 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7128 | 4.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0968 | -0.37 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5567 | 0.09 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.04 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.761
Half-life:
3 days
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