V-Lab
Avi Polymers Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 4th, 2026
1 Day
79.38%
1 Week
79.59%
1 Month
80.44%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 4, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2015 to May 29, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 26% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0674 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1298 | 17.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8532 | 101.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0340 | 2.23** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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