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V-Lab

Avi Polymers Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 4th, 2026

1 Day

79.38%

decreased by 1.05%

1 Week

79.59%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Month

80.44%

increased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 4, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Avi Polymers Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2015 to May 29, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 26% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0674
4.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1298
17.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8532
101.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0340
2.23**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days