V-Lab
Landi Renzo SPA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
42.51%
decreased by 3.39%
1 Week
44.90%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
50.12%
increased by 4.22%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.4942 | 5.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1570 | 19.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9152 | 56.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8190 | 18.31*** |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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