V-Lab
Landi Renzo SPA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
51.08%
decreased by 3.81%
1 Week
51.90%
decreased by 2.99%
1 Month
53.82%
decreased by 1.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 12.5276 | 5.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1575 | 19.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9156 | 56.60*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8247 | 18.30*** |
Persistence:
0.916
Half-life:
8 days
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