Landi Renzo SPA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
52.33%
increased by 9.52%
1 Week
52.37%
increased by 9.56%
1 Month
52.49%
increased by 9.68%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 3.26 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 11.0419 | 1.71* |
| αscore | 0.1544 | 5.75*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9226 | 20.71*** |
| νDF | 3.2593 | 3.68*** |
0.923
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 11.0419 | 1.71* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1544 | 5.75*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9226 | 20.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2593 | 3.68*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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