V-Lab
Landi Renzo SPA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
39.07%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
42.31%
increased by 3.50%
1 Month
48.39%
increased by 9.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6772 | 6.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.1436 | 4.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7479 | 16.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3673 | -2.26** |
| γ2 | 0.5097 | 2.15** |
| γ3 | -0.2717 | -1.66* |
| γ4 | 0.3784 | 1.84* |
| γ5 | -0.5985 | -2.85*** |
| γ6 | 0.6973 | 3.51*** |
| γ7 | -0.6145 | -3.21*** |
| γ8 | 0.4215 | 1.87* |
| γ9 | -0.2042 | -1.07 |
0.891
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6772 | 6.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1436 | 4.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7479 | 16.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3673 | -2.26** |
| γ2 | 0.5097 | 2.15** |
| γ3 | -0.2717 | -1.66* |
| γ4 | 0.3784 | 1.84* |
| γ5 | -0.5985 | -2.85*** |
| γ6 | 0.6973 | 3.51*** |
| γ7 | -0.6145 | -3.21*** |
| γ8 | 0.4215 | 1.87* |
| γ9 | -0.2042 | -1.07 |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
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