Landi Renzo SPA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
50.33%
increased by 6.80%
1 Week
51.20%
increased by 7.67%
1 Month
52.88%
increased by 9.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6632 | 6.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1486 | 5.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7324 | 16.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3898 | -2.47** |
| γ2 | 0.5502 | 2.39** |
| γ3 | -0.3153 | -1.95* |
| γ4 | 0.4324 | 2.10** |
| γ5 | -0.6483 | -3.04*** |
| γ6 | 0.7336 | 3.58*** |
| γ7 | -0.6405 | -3.13*** |
| γ8 | 0.4403 | 1.83* |
| γ9 | -0.2159 | -1.06 |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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