V-Lab
Landi Renzo SPA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
42.95%
decreased by 1.58%
1 Week
45.64%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
50.68%
increased by 6.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6717 | 6.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1451 | 5.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7421 | 16.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.3732 | -2.33** |
| γ2 | 0.5203 | 2.23** |
| γ3 | -0.2836 | -1.75* |
| γ4 | 0.3936 | 1.92* |
| γ5 | -0.6124 | -2.92*** |
| γ6 | 0.7077 | 3.55*** |
| γ7 | -0.6242 | -3.22*** |
| γ8 | 0.4337 | 1.90* |
| γ9 | -0.2158 | -1.11 |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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