V-Lab
Apex Ecotech Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
59.55%
increased by 4.79%
1 Week
59.72%
increased by 4.96%
1 Month
59.87%
increased by 5.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2024 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0472 | 5.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.1068 | 1.76* |
| βGARCH | 0.6115 | 2.55** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0328 | 0.27 |
0.718
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0472 | 5.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1068 | 1.76* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6115 | 2.55** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0328 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.718
Half-life:
2 days
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