Apex Ecotech Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
46.80%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
47.92%
increased by 1.07%
1 Month
51.18%
increased by 4.33%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 04:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0816 | 2.78*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6979 | 7.81*** |
| γleverage | -0.0816 | -1.82* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 5.6000 | 2.39** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5767 | 3.63*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.739
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0816 | 2.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6979 | 7.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0816 | -1.82* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.6000 | 2.39** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5767 | 3.63*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.739
Half-life:
2 days
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