V-Lab
Apex Ecotech Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
65.93%
increased by 1.17%
1 Week
64.90%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
63.73%
decreased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.8402 | 6.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1602 | 4.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7595 | 12.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4366 | 1.65* |
Persistence:
0.760
Half-life:
3 days
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