Apex Ecotech Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
55.36%
decreased by 5.93%
1 Week
57.63%
decreased by 3.66%
1 Month
59.96%
decreased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 04:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 6.95 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 15.5021 | 2.72*** |
| αscore | 0.1449 | 1.26 |
| βpersistence | 0.7482 | 3.58*** |
| νDF | 6.9463 | 0.31 |
0.748
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 15.5021 | 2.72*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1449 | 1.26 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.7482 | 3.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9463 | 0.31 |
Persistence:
0.748
Half-life:
2 days
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