V-Lab
Apex Ecotech Limited GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
63.79%
increased by 10.49%
1 Week
63.07%
increased by 9.77%
1 Month
62.27%
increased by 8.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 4, 2024 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 5.85 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.2087 | 2.01** |
| αARCH | 0.1456 | 1.09 |
| βGARCH | 0.7503 | 3.16*** |
| νDF | 5.8545 | 0.34 |
0.750
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.2087 | 2.01** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1456 | 1.09 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7503 | 3.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8545 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.750
Half-life:
2 days
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