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V-Lab

Aumovio SE MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

7.34%

decreased by 3.98%

1 Week

603.95%

increased by 592.63%

1 Month

288,856,850,360.17%

increased by 288,856,850,348.85%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Aumovio SE MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
2.50**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4213
859.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
44.27***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
1.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0109
57.92***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0001
1.91*

Persistence:

0.671

Half-life:

2 days