V-Lab
Aumovio SE MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
7.34%
decreased by 3.98%
1 Week
603.95%
increased by 592.63%
1 Month
288,856,850,360.17%
increased by 288,856,850,348.85%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 2.50** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4213 | 859.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 44.27*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0109 | 57.92*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0001 | 1.91* |
Persistence:
0.671
Half-life:
2 days
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