V-Lab
Aumovio SE GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.30%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
43.30%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
43.30%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Hessian SE
Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 201 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.4417 | 0.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9965 | 1.52 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.4959 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
201 days
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