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V-Lab

AGL Energy Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

24.38%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

25.55%

increased by 0.79%

1 Month

26.99%

increased by 2.23%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AGL Energy Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4693
7.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
5.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7113
12.13***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0262
1.01
γ2-0.0002
0.00
γ3-0.0959
-3.59***
γ40.1839
7.95***
γ5-0.2254
-8.74***
γ60.1763
6.24***
γ7-0.0623
-2.47**
γ8-0.0237
-0.87
γ90.0234
1.03

Persistence:

0.794

Half-life:

3 days