V-Lab
AGL Energy Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
24.38%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
25.55%
increased by 0.79%
1 Month
26.99%
increased by 2.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4693 | 7.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0829 | 5.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7113 | 12.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0262 | 1.01 |
| γ2 | -0.0002 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.0959 | -3.59*** |
| γ4 | 0.1839 | 7.95*** |
| γ5 | -0.2254 | -8.74*** |
| γ6 | 0.1763 | 6.24*** |
| γ7 | -0.0623 | -2.47** |
| γ8 | -0.0237 | -0.87 |
| γ9 | 0.0234 | 1.03 |
Persistence:
0.794
Half-life:
3 days
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