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V-Lab

AGL Energy Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

19.00%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

19.12%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Month

19.59%

decreased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AGL Energy Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3099
5.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0478
25.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9889
502.73***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1345
7.54***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days