V-Lab
AGL Energy Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
19.00%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
19.12%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
19.59%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3099 | 5.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0478 | 25.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 502.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1345 | 7.54*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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