V-Lab
AGL Energy Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.26%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
23.26%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
23.28%
decreased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 411 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0040 | 8.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0133 | 12.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9849 | 1,339.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0002 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
411 days
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