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V-Lab

AGL Energy Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

23.26%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

23.26%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

23.28%

decreased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AGL Energy Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 411 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0040
8.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0133
12.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9849
1,339.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0002
0.10

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

411 days