V-Lab
ABM Industries Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
24.13%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
24.44%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
25.47%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8525 | 4.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0844 | 31.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9808 | 235.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1398 | 12.15*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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