V-Lab
ABM Industries Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.87%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
19.47%
increased by 0.29%
1 Month
21.47%
increased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8403 | 4.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0845 | 31.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9807 | 235.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1411 | 12.14*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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