V-Lab
ABM Industries Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
23.96%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
27.00%
increased by 3.04%
1 Month
30.41%
increased by 6.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0131 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2000 | 8.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5885 | 16.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0933 | 2.14** |
| γ2 | -0.0820 | -1.39 |
| γ3 | -0.0425 | -1.05 |
| γ4 | 0.0149 | 0.33 |
| γ5 | 0.0802 | 1.84* |
| γ6 | -0.1787 | -4.76*** |
| γ7 | 0.2204 | 5.06*** |
| γ8 | -0.1252 | -2.28** |
| γ9 | -0.0112 | -0.22 |
| γ10 | 0.0448 | 1.46 |
Persistence:
0.788
Half-life:
3 days
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