V-Lab
ABM Industries Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
25.25%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
27.95%
increased by 2.48%
1 Month
30.96%
increased by 5.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9975 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2011 | 8.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5810 | 16.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0844 | 1.94* |
| γ2 | -0.0685 | -1.16 |
| γ3 | -0.0488 | -1.20 |
| γ4 | 0.0158 | 0.36 |
| γ5 | 0.0825 | 1.91* |
| γ6 | -0.1808 | -4.86*** |
| γ7 | 0.2193 | 5.08*** |
| γ8 | -0.1211 | -2.23** |
| γ9 | -0.0143 | -0.29 |
| γ10 | 0.0452 | 1.50 |
Persistence:
0.782
Half-life:
3 days
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