V-Lab
Apaq Technology Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
86.16%
decreased by 4.83%
1 Week
82.15%
decreased by 8.84%
1 Month
73.60%
decreased by 17.39%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 27, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1773 | 2.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1325 | 5.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7487 | 14.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.3828 | 1.90* |
| γ2 | -2.1665 | -2.11** |
| γ3 | 1.6067 | 2.45** |
| γ4 | -1.8077 | -2.63*** |
| γ5 | 1.9950 | 2.63*** |
| γ6 | -2.1472 | -3.31*** |
| γ7 | 1.8170 | 2.91*** |
| γ8 | -0.3164 | -0.51 |
| γ9 | -0.7564 | -1.48 |
| γ10 | 0.3567 | 1.04 |
Persistence:
0.881
Half-life:
5 days
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