V-Lab
Nancal Technology Co.,Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
45.33%
decreased by 4.10%
1 Week
47.41%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Month
51.29%
increased by 1.86%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2016 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.8068 | 11.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1144 | 11.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8821 | 75.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8223 | 4.04*** |
Persistence:
0.882
Half-life:
6 days
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