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V-Lab

Nancal Technology Co.,Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

45.33%

decreased by 4.10%

1 Week

47.41%

decreased by 2.02%

1 Month

51.29%

increased by 1.86%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Nancal Technology Co.,Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 21, 2016 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.8068
11.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1144
11.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8821
75.32***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8223
4.04***

Persistence:

0.882

Half-life:

6 days