V-Lab
Nancal Technology Co.,Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
53.85%
decreased by 3.27%
1 Week
53.76%
decreased by 3.36%
1 Month
53.59%
decreased by 3.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2016 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2318 | 8.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0961 | 4.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7814 | 15.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0363 | 2.25** |
| γ2 | -0.0436 | -2.14** |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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