V-Lab
Hu Group Holdings Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
28.13%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
28.44%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
29.05%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4306 | 7.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1155 | 6.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7691 | 24.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0649 | -1.40 |
| γ2 | 0.1698 | 2.45** |
| γ3 | -0.2142 | -4.59*** |
| γ4 | 0.1823 | 4.63*** |
| γ5 | -0.1140 | -3.42*** |
| γ6 | 0.0495 | 1.46 |
| γ7 | 0.0445 | 1.11 |
| γ8 | -0.1355 | -3.03*** |
| γ9 | 0.1445 | 3.28*** |
| γ10 | -0.0821 | -2.38** |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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