V-Lab
Hu Group Holdings Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
35.59%
increased by 2.10%
1 Week
36.41%
increased by 2.92%
1 Month
37.97%
increased by 4.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4764 | 8.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1154 | 6.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7635 | 23.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0304 | -0.89 |
| γ2 | 0.1015 | 2.01** |
| γ3 | -0.1610 | -4.87*** |
| γ4 | 0.1714 | 5.48*** |
| γ5 | -0.1599 | -5.68*** |
| γ6 | 0.1645 | 5.75*** |
| γ7 | -0.1441 | -4.21*** |
| γ8 | 0.0637 | 1.44 |
| γ9 | 0.0660 | 0.87 |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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