Arcadyan Technology Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.98%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
37.02%
increased by 2.02%
1 Month
38.57%
increased by 3.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 2007 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 119% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0889 | 10.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3694 | 10.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1055 | 11.38*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7023 | 0.42 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1931 | 0.44 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6786 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.511
Half-life:
1 days
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