V-Lab
Arcadyan Technology Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
35.67%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
37.96%
increased by 1.98%
1 Month
39.35%
increased by 3.37%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 119% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0879 | 10.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3761 | 10.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1042 | 11.38*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7086 | 0.42 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1941 | 0.44 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6761 | 0.91 |
Persistence:
0.516
Half-life:
1 days
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