V-Lab
Arcadyan Technology Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
41.31%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Week
41.47%
decreased by 1.77%
1 Month
42.00%
decreased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.8404 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0722 | 19.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9754 | 138.07*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2196 | 11.00*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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