Arcadyan Technology Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
47.64%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
47.50%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
47.04%
decreased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 2007 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.9429 | 3.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0729 | 19.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9755 | 137.25*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2024 | 11.18*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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