V-Lab
Inno Laser Technology Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
116.39%
increased by 26.59%
1 Week
112.49%
increased by 22.69%
1 Month
105.66%
increased by 15.86%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 6, 2021 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8080 | 2.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.1131 | 3.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7357 | 9.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 10.0411 | 3.31*** |
| γ2 | -16.0894 | -3.82*** |
| γ3 | 10.2811 | 4.16*** |
| γ4 | -5.4222 | -2.05** |
| γ5 | 1.6390 | 0.55 |
| γ6 | -2.7437 | -0.95 |
| γ7 | 5.4326 | 2.21** |
| γ8 | -4.6589 | -3.13*** |
0.849
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8080 | 2.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1131 | 3.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7357 | 9.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 10.0411 | 3.31*** |
| γ2 | -16.0894 | -3.82*** |
| γ3 | 10.2811 | 4.16*** |
| γ4 | -5.4222 | -2.05** |
| γ5 | 1.6390 | 0.55 |
| γ6 | -2.7437 | -0.95 |
| γ7 | 5.4326 | 2.21** |
| γ8 | -4.6589 | -3.13*** |
Persistence:
0.849
Half-life:
4 days
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