V-Lab
Garden Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
10.06%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
10.71%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
11.07%
increased by 0.89%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 22, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8850 | 3.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1582 | 1.85* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4074 | 1.42 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -5.5470 | -1.02 |
| γ2 | 12.6617 | 1.53 |
| γ3 | -13.7006 | -2.58*** |
| γ4 | 11.0428 | 2.99*** |
Persistence:
0.566
Half-life:
1 days
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