Sunspring Metal Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
22.31%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
22.90%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
24.13%
increased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2007 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1047 | 13.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6698 | 18.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0084 | 0.98 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1810 | 1.10 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1235 | 0.91 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8316 | 4.80*** |
Persistence:
0.779
Half-life:
3 days
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