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V-Lab

Sunspring Metal Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

34.19%

increased by 1.52%

1 Week

35.08%

increased by 2.41%

1 Month

38.23%

increased by 5.56%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Sunspring Metal Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 10, 2007 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

17.6931
3.34***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1174
98.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9906
364.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4502
121.49***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days