Sunspring Metal Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.19%
increased by 1.52%
1 Week
35.08%
increased by 2.41%
1 Month
38.23%
increased by 5.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2007 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.6931 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1174 | 98.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9906 | 364.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4502 | 121.49*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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