Sunspring Metal Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
32.30%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
34.36%
increased by 1.86%
1 Month
38.75%
increased by 6.25%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2007 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1273 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1108 | 5.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8017 | 19.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0255 | 0.10 |
| γ2 | -0.1394 | -0.36 |
| γ3 | 0.4170 | 1.78* |
| γ4 | -0.6592 | -3.84*** |
| γ5 | 0.4937 | 2.18** |
| γ6 | 0.0560 | 0.20 |
| γ7 | -0.5672 | -2.06** |
| γ8 | 0.7261 | 3.31*** |
| γ9 | -0.5013 | -3.75*** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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