V-Lab
Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
33.78%
decreased by 2.22%
1 Week
35.88%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
40.89%
increased by 4.89%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 07:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2020 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 4.31 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 9.1559 | 1.34 |
| αARCH | 0.1096 | 2.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9329 | 18.83*** |
| νDF | 4.3146 | 1.09 |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.1559 | 1.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1096 | 2.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9329 | 18.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3146 | 1.09 |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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