V-Lab
Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
34.83%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
36.92%
increased by 1.49%
1 Month
41.19%
increased by 5.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2614 | 8.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.1047 | 3.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7984 | 14.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0352 | 1.02 |
0.903
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2614 | 8.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1047 | 3.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7984 | 14.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0352 | 1.02 |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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