Zymeworks Inc. Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
831.02
decreased by 83.20
1 Week
934.50
increased by 20.28
1 Month
952.40
increased by 38.18
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2017 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1538 | 4.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1297 | 8.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8549 | 56.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.4131 | 3.63*** |
| γ2 | -0.5280 | -2.85*** |
| γ3 | -0.0662 | -0.37 |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1538 | 4.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1297 | 8.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8549 | 56.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.4131 | 3.63*** |
| γ2 | -0.5280 | -2.85*** |
| γ3 | -0.0662 | -0.37 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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