V-Lab
Zumiez Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
5,382.94
increased by 415.66
1 Week
5,452.87
increased by 485.59
1 Month
5,596.81
increased by 629.53
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2005 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 61 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4102 | 5.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.1056 | 14.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8831 | 109.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0016 | 0.70 |
0.989
Persistence61d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4102 | 5.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1056 | 14.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8831 | 109.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0016 | 0.70 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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